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Ðóññêàÿ âåðñèÿ ðóñ. / eng.

Nuclear market

Nuclear market / Prospects

The change in the political picture of the world which has occurred in the latest 15-20 years has been accompanied by significant losses in the traditional Russian part of the nuclear power plant construction market.  Implementation of many projects, such as NPP in Roumania, Poland, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Cuba and Libya was stopped, the NPP construction was frozen, the equipment was preserved or sold out. 

Degradation of possibilities in the traditional line of cooperation in the sphere of nuclear power plants construction led to the necessity of changing the scope of countries for promoting the Russian technologies in the world market.  There occurred certain re-orientation to rapidly developing markets of Asian countries, first of all China and India, which allowed preserving the leading position of Russia in the world market of NPP construction. 

At present 442 nuclear power units with total capacity of about 369 MW are operated in the world.  The picture of distribution of NPPs between the countries of the world is illustrated by data as of June, 15, 2006 of PRIS (Power Reactor Information Service). 

The USA possess the biggest NPP park in the world, 103 nuclear power units operate there.  The US are followed by France (59 power units), Japan (55 power units) and Russia (31 power units). 

In the scope of well developed nuclear industry of the USA, France, Japan and Russia the main competitors have been identified in the world market of NPP construction: AREVA, Westinghouse (has been recently purchased by Toshiba), CJSC “Atomstroyexport”.

These companies take part in the tender for construction of Sanmeng and Yangtze NPP in China (Westinghouse with reactor AP-1000, AREVA with reactor  EPR-1600, CJSC “Atomstroyexport” with reactor PWR-1000, Project AES-91/99).

At present the share of Russia in the world market of NPP construction amounts to about 20%, and there are preconditions for its increasing, both in the line of modernization and the resource prolongation of existing power units, and in the line of constructing new ones. 

Nowadays in the world, due to investigations carried out and experience gained in the sphere of NPP safe operation, there occurs the process of re-evaluation of the power units safety and on its grounds prolongation of their operation life (resource) over the design values.  The resource for 20 power units in the USA has been extended from 40 to 60 years.  Applications for prolongation have been filed for practically all operating power units.  In Russia the operation life has been already extended for 5 power units.  Taking into consideration practically complete amortization, nuclear power units in many countries can become over-profitable. 

Nuclear safety becomes now the key issue in the world, and on the background of the outlined change in the public position regarding construction of new NPPs, the interest to the nuclear industry development is increasing.  New nuclear generating power plants are either already being constructed, or the decisions about construction of new nuclear power units have been taken, or being considered in the USA, France, Finland, a number of Asian countries (China, India, Iran, Japan, South Korea), a number of countries in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Slovakia) as well as in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina). 

Countries having no own nuclear power generation seriously consider the development of their nuclear power industry:  Italy, Poland, Byelorussia, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Chile, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand. 

IAEA expert estimations assume construction of up to 130 new power units by 2020 (there are some estimations which exceed this number significantly) with total capacity of 430 GW and annual electric power production up to 3032 billion kWh which can constitute up to 30% of the world power balance.  The volume of investments into construction of nuclear power industry objects by 2020 is estimated in the amount from 100 to 300 billion US dollars. 

The nearest perspective of promoting Russian nuclear technologies in the world market of new NPP construction is first of all connected with strengthening and extending the Russian presence in China, India and Iran. 

There is a perspective of Russian participation in NPP construction in Turkey.  The possibility of Russian companies participating in completion of units 3, 4 of NPP “Mokhovtse” in Slovakia and completion of units 3, 4 of Khmelnitskaya NPP in the Ukraine are seriously considered.  New perspectives of constructing the NPP in Byelorussia and Kazakhstan are offered.  It is planned to have started the construction of units 5,6 of NPP “Paksh” in Hungary by 2010, where participation of Russian companies is also possible.

In the long-term perspective construction of new NPPs by Russian designs (participation of Russian companies in construction) is possible in China, India, Czech republic, Ukraine and Vietnam on condition of strengthening the positions of Russian companies in the corresponding markets.

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